"LFS": the value of Scouting

A qualitative and quantitative analysis of LFScouting, time to show a positive correlation between the clubs most virtuous Scouting level and number of trophies. Scouting WINS.

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The scouting is one of the most important assets that a football club has. Its benefits are well known, and the list could never be exhaustive. Allows to find talented young people and get them in pink when their value is insignificant or minimal compared to that potential and future. Then generate direct economic benefits:

  • cost savings of cards and engagements
  • high chances of gains

indirect economic or:

  • increase in revenues due to the explosion of the player, related to its contribution to marketing, the success of arsenal and his image rights.

But football is a particular business, in which the purpose of profit is parallel and convergent-but still secondary-than success on the field, and the value must be maximum for both shareholders and for the fans, owners club moral, always wanting to see their favorite team triumph.

And a good scouting sector contributes to victories, making them more sustainable and less expensive. Have the opportunity to discover young talents and raise them in an already well tested, and with a football culture already well defined, it's definitely a plus for a club, over another that prefers to invest, maybe so, for football players can guarantee certain performances for only a limited time. Examples like the nursery of the boat, the Juventus youth system, the political strategy of the port, and the renowned observer of Manchester United are useful to give an idea of the concept, without further explanation.

What you want to try to make this brief analysis, is quantifying the numerical value of scouting in a football club, answering the question: how much scouting affect success of a club? There is a positive relationship between efficient scouting and the accomplishments of a club? How scouting is really determinative?

In the business model of a football, scouting can be defined as a resource, an asset, made by a network of observers able to Intuit the talents, and coaches, or rather, football trainers, able to grow them.

To develop this analysis, which has as its objective now is to bring scientific results in quantitative terms, but only to give an idea of the importance of scouting and its correlation with the accomplishments of a team, they took into account fourteen teams, among the most important European Leagues (Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1), using the following criteria: history , turnover, recent hits. In assessing the virtuosity of scouting, took into consideration the current value ratio rose/acquisition cost current roster (source Transfermrkt.com). Obviously, the higher this ratio, the more the scouting of a club is efficient, a sign that the initial investment has produced its fruits, in economic terms or in the field. For this reason, you are not taking into account the factor capital gains, since this variable considered only an economic standpoint (the Boat's Scouting network, according to the policy gains, would not be rewarded for the investment Made, since the player was never sold, although the value of the player is invaluable in all respects). In addition, another assumption that was considered in our analysis is the exclusion of clubs over the past five years have won less than two trophies. The rationale for this is that the variable success in soccer depends on many other components, economic, financial, sometimes irrational. This has meant that over the years have been created in the system football deep differences in political, economic and cultural terms between the first strip clubs (which generally compete for national and international trophies) and those of lower bands, pointing to sporting goals different from mere winning the title, unless a miracle sports (Leicester) or long/very long term designs (Sassuolo?).

One final consideration is the time horizon considered: as for the rose, has examined the current season, while analysing the trophies won, they analyzed the last 5 years, starting in the 2011-12 season, because it assumes a mean duration of 5 years of the cycle for players of a winning football team.

In analyzing the end result, he compared the virtuosity of scouting with the success achieved by each club. In evaluating the achievements, has been pondering the value of trophies according to their prestige. In addition, in order to neutralize the different economic powers of the clubs, which in any case affect the successes, divided the value of trophies for the cost of each rose. After giving uniformity and consistency to our analysis. Here are the results:

Club Pink value (mil) Cost rose (mil) Trophies Trophy value * Trophy value/Cost rose Value/Cost Rose
Bayern Munich 582.25 351 12 25 7.12% 1.66
Seville 218.7 98.1 3 6 6.12% 2.23
Barcelona 674.5 435.25 11 24 5.51% 1.55
Real Madrid 775.8 627 8 27 4.31% 1.24
Juventus 444 417.28 10 15 3.59% 1.06
PSG 420.65 427 10 14 3.28% 0.99
Atletico Madrid 509 224.35 5 7 3.12% 2.27
Borussia Dortmund 351.5 212 4 5 2.36% 1.66
Chelsea 522.3 431 4 10 2.32% 1.21
Manchester City 524.25 593.5 5 7 1.18% 0.88
Arsenal 490.5 366.8 4 4 1.09% 1.34
Naples 319.38 224.9 2 2 0.89% 1.42
Manchester United 548.5 632 4 5 0.79% 0.87
Liverpool 378.2 354 1 1 0.28% 1.07


* Legend value trophies Score assigned
League Cup 1
Domestic 1
Championship 2
Europa League 2
European Super Cup 3
FIFA Club World Cup 4
Champions League 5

As you note, net turnover and investments made in the first four places to teams that have won more than four of the seven most virtuous teams reside in terms of scouting. Five teams in seven more virtuous reside at the top of this list. The only two exceptions, Naples and Borussia Dortmund, are explained by the fact that compete in contexts where winning trophies is very difficult, given the monopoly of Juve and Bayern Munich in Italy and France.

The research has produced positive results.